I’m Bearish

I don’t want to say it but I am bearish right now on the markets and economy. Right now there seems to be too many problems and unknowns.

I don’t think anyone likes the R word Recession, but we may already be in one. The most recent U.S. recession was from March 2001 - November 2001 defined by The National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER. I don’t really have any memories of the effects of that recession, but if we do go into a recession I will be paying attention. As a business owner I am very interested on how it may affect me and my company. As an investor I don’t want to lose money in the stock market.

Reasons why I’m bearish:

• The housing market still hasn’t bottomed
  • I think foreclosures will still be on the rise because people bought houses that they just can’t afford even as rates get lowered.
  • Home values decline will equal less spending using home equity
• Credit problems still exist
  • It will still be hard to get credit
• In the 4th Quarter, the economy grew at a measly 0.6%

I’m bearish but I think we will be in a stagnant economy and stock market more than anything. The fed is actively cutting rates with the global growth story, and an U.S. government stimulus plan will counter act the slowing economy. That’s why I’m leaning towards bear or sideways market and economy. Until some of those problems above become more clear I will be bearish.

If we are in a bear market right now, it sucks, I had a decent return in 2007 and I’ve lost in all in a mere 3 weeks to start this year. Patiently and optimistically I plan to capitalize off the stocks that have been oversold in the next few months. I hope to do the same with real estate market as I keep watching it fall and it may just be perfect timing for me at this point in my life.

Hopes to stimulate the economy the government will be giving a tax rebate, which I don’t think does anything because it will only look good for a quarter. Anyways I’m looking forward to the getting my tax rebate, but I really don’t know what I’m going to spend it on. I may spend some and use some for my bills.

What are you going to do with your tax rebate check?